Ấn Độ đặt chỉ tiêu tăng trưởng của Kế hoạch 5 năm lần thứ 12 từ 9 đến 9,5%

12th Plan to target 9-9.5% growth

Special Correspondent
The Hindu
NEW DELHI, April 21, 2011

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chairs a full Planning Commission meeting to discuss an approach paper for the 12th Five Year Plan, in New Delhi on Thursday.

The full Planning Commission meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed on Thursday to work towards a growth target of 9.0-9.5 per cent for the 12th Plan (2012-17). It endorsed the objectives and challenges outlined by the Commission for the five-year period involving special focus on policy and governance reforms and redesigning of government programmes.

The Planning Commission gave a presentation on the ongoing 11th Plan and objectives of the 12th Plan which include 100 per cent literacy, inclusive growth and development of physical and social infrastructure within the overall target of fiscal consolidation.

In his concluding remarks at the meeting, Dr. Singh pointed to the “general agreement” arrived at for focus on policy and governance reforms while working towards the targeted growth rate. “We should also set monitorable targets related to different dimensions of inclusiveness, and then work to achieve these targets by appropriate design of policy and funding of Plan schemes,” Dr. Singh said. He pointed to the Commission's emphasis on the importance of working within the overall fiscal consolidation target. “This is an important constraint that we must recognise. The Planning Commission and Finance Ministry together must come up with a realistic assessment of Plan size for the Centre and the States,” he said.

In particular, the Prime Minister noted “the suggestions of the Finance Minister to improve the functioning of the legal system and methods of dispute resolution, and on improving the functioning of key infrastructure sectors.” Dr. Singh asked the Commission to prepare a draft approach to the 12th Plan for discussions with the States, taking into account the day's deliberations and keeping in mind sustainability and low carbon issues.

After the circulation of a revised approach document to the Ministries concerned, it can then be brought to the Cabinet and then to the National Development Council (NDC). “We should aim at an NDC meeting sometime in July,” Dr. Singh said.

Earlier, setting the tone for discussions at the meeting, Dr. Singh said: “The 12th Plan objective must be faster, more inclusive and also sustainable growth... We need to identify the critical areas where existing policies and programmes are not delivering results and should, therefore, be strengthened or even restructured.” India, he said, needed to tackle new challenges and this called for new initiatives.

According to the Commission's presentation, for aiming at 100 per cent adult literacy, the 12th Plan (2012-17) would have to increase expenditure on health from 1.3 per cent to at least 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product).

The country was estimated to have recorded an annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent during 11th Plan as against the target of nine per cent. In particular, the economic performance was impacted by the global financial crisis and drought.

In the years ahead, some of the challenges that the economy faced were accelerated inflation, global pressure on food and oil prices, quality of governance and weak manufacturing performance, which could be given a boost by liberalising the policy on the foreign direct investment (FDI), it said. “Citizen feedback reveals general unhappiness with governance and public service delivery. They believe that corruption is built into systems for public service delivery,” the Plan panel said.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1715866.ece

Xuất khẩu của ngành cơ khí Ấn Độ tăng khoảng 85% trong năm tài khóa 2010-2011

Engineering exports jump about 85 p.c. in 2010-11

PTI
New Delhi, April 21, 2011

Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, Anand Sharma, releasing the Strategy Paper for the growth of Engineering Exports: 2010-2014, commissioned by Engineering Export Promotion Council of India and carried out by Ernst and Young, in New Delhi on April 27, 2010. A file photo: V. Sudershan

India’s engineering exports registered the highest ever growth of about 85 per cent to $ 60.1 billion in 2010-11, on account of a robust demand for the goods not only from major markets like the US, but also from Latin America.

During 2009—10, the exports were $ 32.5 billion, according to Engineering Export Promotion Council (EPCH) data.

“An impressive growth in the engineering exports has come about on the back of a strong demand from the US and the developing markets of Latin America and Middle East,” EPCH Executive Director R Maitra said.

These exports would have been still higher, if there were no financial problems in Europe.

“The European market is still sluggish,” Mr. Maitra added.

In March 2011, the exports grew by over 115 per cent to USD 7.4 billion year-on-year.

The US accounts for 30 per cent of the country’s total engineering exports.

In the government’s strategy to double India’s exports to $ 450 billion by 2013-2014, the engineering exports are set to play a major role.

Engineering export include exports of goods, transport equipment, capital goods, other machinery/equipment and light engineering products like castings, forgings and fasteners.

India’s exports in 2010-11 stood at $ 245.9 billion, the highest ever since Independence.

 

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1715097.ece

Ấn Độ: Quản lý lạm phát đặt ra những thách thức mới hơn

Inflation management poses newer challenges

C. R. L. NARASIMHAN
The Hindu
April 4, 2011

The surge in food inflation, which crossed double digits on March 12 after retreating over the three previous weeks, appears to have caught the government by surprise. However, even when the weekly Wholesale Price Index-based food index was declining, the prices of milk, eggs, poultry and meat had remained firm. Economists had for quite some time assigned a specific cause for this trend: as incomes rise the food basket of an average family gets diversified.

The average family can afford to move from coarse grains to cereals, milk, eggs, meat and so on. Since this trend will not reverse, the price rise in these ‘protein' segments will remain high well into the medium-term. Adding to the discomfiture of policymakers has been the fact that there is no respite from the high global oil prices. Indian consumers expect domestic fuel prices to go up. This will harden inflation expectations, already at high levels.

Whether it is on account of an unexpected rise in food prices or due to a surge in the prices of non-food manufactured products or a combination of several factors, inflation has always been in the news.

Recently, the Finance Minister said that it would be possible to maintain inflation at ‘reasonable levels.' What those reasonable levels are, whether in fact the price rise is a result of high economic growth are all subject matters of considerable interest.

The Economic Survey 2010-11 looks at inflation from different perspectives. In its second chapter ‘ Micro-foundations of macroeconomic development', the survey observes that the period of high growth accompanied by inflation calls for some nuanced analysis of the impact of inflation.

Since not all sections are partaking of the fruits of growth in the same way, policymakers have to worry about the worse-off and vulnerable sections of the society.

Hypothetically, it is possible that the average Indian is better off as the per capita income growth has been of the order of about 7 per cent annually. However, some poor people are actually worse off because their nominal incomes have hardly grown and inflation has negated that growth. For a country having inclusive growth as a model this is a serious concern.

Rise in food prices

The rise in food prices especially impacts on the poor more severely than on others.

According to official statistics, the bottom quintile of India's rural population spends about 67 per cent of their aggregate household expenditure on food. With food inflation at around 10 per cent during the most part of the year, some in this group would be worse off despite the high real GDP growth. Then that is the reason why the official policies have to be supportive of the poor-through appropriate food security schemes, dependable micro credit, basic health support and so on. Such policies are there to stay.

Despite the best efforts, inflation will be higher than the 3 per cent or so that prevailed earlier.

There is an interesting connection between inclusion and inflation. A number of people especially in the rural areas keep their savings as cash at home.

Financial inclusion

Financial inclusion aims at persuading these people to deposit money in a bank. The previously idle money would then enter the financial system and add to liquidity. Admittedly financial inclusion, a high priority policy objective, really encompasses a number of initiatives — creating the financial infrastructure in previously unbanked areas, financial literacy and so on. That such a laudable objective should stoke inflation has not been widely understood so far.

There is enough evidence from around the world that monetisation of the economy and bringing more and more people into the formal financial system contribute to an overall pressure on prices.

Another generally beneficial development, globalisation or integration of the domestic economy with the global economy, can also push up prices in India.

In poor countries, the purchasing power parity (PPP) is low. This means the kind of living standard one can have in a poor country with $100 is considerably higher than what one can achieve with the same money in the U.S. and other advanced economies.

But by the time a country becomes industrialised, the PPP correction has to become smaller.

This happens partly because of exchange rate alignments but more substantially because the prices of basic non-traded goods and unskilled labour in the formerly poor countries rise and partly catch up with prices in industrialised countries.

Looking at the future, given that the Indian economy is expected to be on a high growth path, inflation will also remain high.

According to the Economic Survey, the country will have an average annual inflation of nearly 5 per cent during the next decade or so. That forecast is arrived after taking into account several likely scenarios, such as a spurt in real per capita incomes and its impact on prices.

All these suggest the need to revisit some of the standard policies for managing inflation. India's growth process has to be inclusive and there must be better designed systems for providing security to the vulnerable.

 

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/article1596885.ece?homepage=true

Hơn 17.000 nông dân Ấn Độ tự tử năm 2009

17,368 farm suicides in 2009

P. Sainath
The Hindu
MUMBAI, December 27, 2010

Wife of a distressed farmer (portrait in background) who committed suicide in Waniyavatnal, Maharashtra. At least 17,368 farmers killed themselves in 2009, the worst figure for farm suicides in six years. File Photo: P. Sainath

Worst figure in six years

At least 17,368 Indian farmers killed themselves in 2009, the worst figure for farm suicides in six years, according to data of the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). This is an increase of 1,172 over the 2008 count of 16,196. It brings the total farm suicides since 1997 to 2,16,500. The share of the Big 5 States, or ‘suicide belt' — Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — in 2009 remained very high at 10,765, or around 62 per cent of the total, though falling nearly five percentage points from 2008. Maharashtra remained the worst State for farm suicides for the tenth successive year, reporting 2,872. Though that is a fall of 930, it is still 590 more than in Karnataka, second worst, which logged 2,282 farm suicides.

Economist K. Nagaraj, author of the biggest study on Indian farm suicides, says, “That these numbers are rising even as the farmer population shrinks, confirms the agrarian crisis is still burning.”

Maharashtra has logged 44,276 farm suicides since 1997, over a fifth of the total 2,16,500. Within the Big 5, Karnataka saw the highest increase of 545 in 2009. Andhra Pradesh recorded 2,414 farm suicides — 309 more than in 2008. Madhya Pradesh (1,395) and Chhattisgarh (1,802) saw smaller increases of 16 and 29. Outside the Big 5, Tamil Nadu doubled its tally with 1,060, against 512 in 2008. In all, 18 of 28 States reported higher farm suicide numbers in 2009. Some, like Jammu and Kashmir or Uttarakhand, saw a negligible rise. Rajasthan, Kerala and Jharkhand saw increases of 55, 76 and 93. Assam and West Bengal saw higher rises of 144 and 295. NCRB farm data now exist for 13 years. In the first seven, 1997-2003, there were 1,13,872 farm suicides, an average of 16,267 a year.

In the next six years 1,02,628 farmers took their lives at an average of 17,105 a year. This means, on average, around 47 farmers — or almost one every 30 minutes — killed themselves each day between 2004 and 2009.

Lower their average

Among the major States, only a few including Karnataka, Kerala and West Bengal avoided the sharp rise these six years and lowered their average by over 350 compared to the 1997-2003 period.

In the same period, the annual average of farm suicides in the Big 5 States as a whole was more than 1,650 higher than it was in 1997-2003.

(Source: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/columns/sainath/article995824.ece?homepage=true; accessed 28 Dec. 2010)