Ngân hàng trung ương Ấn Độ: Ấn Độ đang bị tổn hại bởi đồng Nhân dân tệ được định giá thấp hơn giá trị thực

India being hurt by undervalued yuan: RBI

The Economic Times
1 Apr, 2011

MUMBAI: China's policy to keep its currency, the renminbi or yuan , artificially undervalued gives it a huge economic advantage and impacts India's trade, says a research paper released by the Reserve Bank.

In the paper, 'The Implications of Renminbi Revaluation on India's Trade', S Arunachalaramanan and Ramesh Golait of the RBI have said that an artificially undervalued currency gives China a distinct advantage in the export market.

"By keeping renminbi (RMB) undervalued against the US dollar (USD) and depreciating it in line with the USD in the international market without taking into account the economic fundamentals of China, it invariably and distinctly provides competitive advantage over its trade competitors and trade partners including India," the paper said.

It added that any revaluation of the RMB, also known as yuan, will have an impact on India's trade, particularly its imports.

"In this context, one of the factors favouring China is the cost advantage of its exports (imports for India) influenced by various domestic factors. Factor like production-oriented firms/industries subsidies does support China Model. The cost of production as well as productivity of labour also becomes an added advantage in its export promotion," the paper said.

Western countries, particularly the US, have been urging China for years to allow more free flow of its currency. In fact, during the G20 Finance Ministers meet held earlier this week it was suggested that the RMB could have a bigger role in the global system in case China shows more flexibility.

India had a trade deficit of USD 19.2 billion with China in 2009-10 and the RBI said the country should diversify its imports, particularly electronic and machinery goods, and start securing them from other countries.

"In India, the share of the imports from China has significantly risen to 10.7 per cent during 2009-10 from 7.3 per cent five years ago... To avoid the implications in terms of imports, there is a strong need to diversify imports of these items," the RBI paper said.

It said that while the unit cost of labour in China has declined by 20 to 80 per cent, in India increases in labour compensation outpaced increase in productivity which has led to an increase in the unit cost by 10 to 100 per cent.

The apex bank said there is a need to address the issue of labour improvement in productivity.

It further said that China's current currency policy gives its exporters a distinct advantage over other countries that have to deal with currency volatility .

"Given the fact that the policies of China are export-oriented, pro-FDI and keeping the exchange rate undervalued etc., the emerging market economies which have allowed their currencies to float will have to face distinct issues in their management of balance of payments," RBI said.

 

Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/india-being-hurt-by-undervalued-yuan-rbi/articleshow/7845381.cms

Ấn Độ: Ngân sách Liên bang 2011-2012 tập trung vào lạm phát và tăng trưởng

Budget 2011-12 to focus on inflation and growth

OOMMEN A. NINAN
The Hindu
February 27, 2011

The Union Budget 2011 will be presented by the Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, in the midst of rising global commodity prices, which can increase inflationary pressure. Even though the Government is likely to stress on growth as well as economic reforms, it will have to adress the key issue of inflation in the first place.

As the Economic Survey has also warned, food inflation has been in double digits for 76 weeks since June 5, 2009. “The inflationary pressures on the domestic front are likely to be exacerbated by the higher levels of global commodity prices,” said the Finance Minister while tabling the Economic Survey for 2010-11 in Parliament on Friday prior to his Budget presentation on Monday.

Further, the easy money policy being followed by developed nations and the political turmoil in the Middle East will have a bearing on headline inflation at home.

The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark 30-share index, Sensex, lost 8.2 per cent since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked interest rates and revised upwards its inflation estimate. With the increases announced on January 25, the RBI has cumulatively increased the repo rate by 175 basis points and the reverse repo rate by 225 basis points since mid-March 2010. Additionally, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) was increased by 100 basis points.

The Survey has also mentioned the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of continued pressure on commodity and non-commodity prices. The Middle East turmoil has already taken global oil prices to a two-year high of around $120 a barrel. Even though the government has already said that it expects inflation to moderate to around 5 per cent by June-July and its policy makers like Planning Commission Vice-Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia gyrates the topic of inflation by saying “it will come down soon”, inflation and inflationary pressures are continuing unabated making common man's life miserable. Though the Government favours a higher growth rate even at the cost of rising inflation, markets believe that high inflation would endanger an ambitious growth expectation.

Agriculture

“Primary articles inflation has been an issue due to surging demand and supply shortage,” said K. Ramanathan, Chief Investment Officer-Single Manager Investments, ING Investment Management India. He said more focus needs to be there on increasing acreage/arable land and productivity in agriculture. Focus should also be there in reducing risks due to poor monsoon. While manufacturing inflation has been benign so far increasing global commodity especially oil prices have the potential to derail economic growth. Reduction in import duty on crude and excise duty on petrol and diesel would also reduce inflationary pressures to some extent.

“The formulation of this budget against the current challenging macroeconomic backdrop is likely to be a difficult task for the government. Given upcoming State elections, drastic expenditure reforms are unlikely in the 2011-12 budget,” said Anubhuti Sahay, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank.

Also, the growing perception that government policies, or a lack thereof, have worsened the fiscal situation leaves little room for a significant deviation from the fiscal consolidation path, at least in the initial budget announcement. Investor sentiment has already been dented by downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. While announcing a fiscal deficit of 5.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011-12 on the heels of a 5.2 per cent deficit in 2010-11 might be seen as a positive step towards deficit reduction, the inability to meet the 4.8 per cent target set in the government's fiscal consolidation plan is likely to weigh on market sentiment.

“We are not convinced that the government can do much in the short-term on inflation and growth,” stated a report of Nomura Financial Advisors and Securities (India) Private Ltd. Furthermore, the report states that the budget could entail the risk of a rise in excise duties, which would put further pressure on existing margin pressures and inflation. “We do not see much respite for interest rates which we expect to remain elevated amidst ongoing systemic liquidity shortages and a high level of expected market borrowings.” Fiscal imperatives and a limited ability to hike expenditure could further cap upside to systemic liquidity.

The current bout of inflation in India is primarily being driven by rising global commodity and domestic food prices. Management of inflation and inflationary expectations is the domain of the central bank which can, at best, tweak short-term rates in the hope of reining in aggregate demand. The global commodity cycle, the key determinant of manufacturing and fuel inflation, constituting about 80 per cent of the WPI index, is exogenous to the government.

Demand factors

Food inflation is now morphing into a structural feature and is being driven by rising food demand in a fast-growing economy plagued by a creaky food supply chain, endemic inefficiencies and poor infrastructure in the critical agricultural sector. “This year, inflation seems to be driven by demand factors, despite higher supply levels,” the Survey said. This is in contrast to the fact that in the last fiscal, inflation was mostly driven by a deficient monsoon, leading to scarcity of certain food products like pulses, cereals and sugar.

“We expect the budget to be a tight rope balance on the fiscal deficit side,” said Mr. Ramanathan. As per the fiscal deficit reduction road map, the deficit is to be cut to 4.8 per cent of GDP.

Higher claims on subsidies (food, fertilizer and oil), pressures to increase social spending in the background of several State elections and absence of one-offs like the 3G bounty (which accounted for almost 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2011) would be the challenges the finance minister has to contend with.

One way of increasing revenue would be to normalise the reduction in excise duty and service tax to pre-crises levels. Possible increase of 2 per cent in both these accounts can be expected in the budget. Another source of increased revenue would be increasing MAT rates to align with the 20 per cent rate proposed in the Direct Taxes Code Bill, 2010. Buoyancy in tax revenue would continue due to sharp increase in nominal GDP growth. Given that this would be the last year of the current five-year Plan, there would be limited room for pruning Plan expenditure growth.

On the non-Plan expenditure side, interest payments and defence expenditure account for around 50 per cent and scope for reduction here is limited. Given the high global commodity prices and rising oil prices, the subsidy bill also would be substantially higher next year. In this backdrop, containing fiscal deficit to 4.8 per cent of GDP would be an arduous task.

The speed of the reforms process has perceivably slowed down in the recent past. Market participants would look for measures that indicate the government's resolve to continue with the reforms process. One such measure that could boost the market, according to Mr. Ramanathan, could be allowing FDI in multi-brand retail, defence (up to 49 per cent) and in insurance. Other measures that would give market confidence would be the passage of several pending bills like the Mines and Minerals Bill and Land acquisition (Amendment Bill). Fiscal deficit number of 4.8 per cent as well as reemphasising commitment to increase investments in infrastructure, sort out policy and procedural delays in sectors like power and road transport would be other measures that could boost the market.


Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1495450.ece

Tăng trưởng ngành công nghiệp ô tô Ấn Độ có thể giảm xuống còn 14-15% năm 2011

Auto sector growth could slow down to 14-15% in 2011

 

Press Trust Of India
Mumbai, February 13, 2011
 

Rising interest rates coupled with increasing fuel prices and input costs have the potential to affect the Indian auto sector's growth which could slow down at around 14-15% in 2011 as compared to 31% in 2010, a top industry official has said. The industry had grown at 23-24% in 2009 despite the global economic slowdown.

"High input costs and rising fuel prices coupled with a steady hike in interest rates would affect sales this year for the overall industry. However, we (GM) don't expect any contraction," General Motors India vice president, corporate affairs, A Balendran, told PTI in Mumbai.

GM India's sales grew a mere 6% in January this year to 9,984 units from 9,421 units in the same month of the previous year. It expects a similar sale in February as well, Balendran said.

"Market sentiment is very low at this point. There are issues like the economic slowdown, (tight) liquidity and inflation. These are not very good signs for the auto industry. It would make the products costlier."

Crude oil prices have touched $100 per barrel thus making petrol dearer for consumers, Balendran said, adding prices are expected to rise further.

The country's largest car-maker, Maruti Suzuki, had recently said it fears a drop in demand for the auto sector in FY 12 driven by factors like high inflation, rate hikes and high fuel prices.

"Things like high inflation, the rate hikes and the fuel price increase point out to a tightening in the situation...we need to be wary and careful as the buoyancy we saw till now will definitely slow down a bit," Maruti Suzuki chief general manager, marketing, Shashank Srivastava, had told PTI early this month.

Srivastava, however, did not give any estimate of industry growth.

 

Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/Auto-sector-growth-could-slow-down-to-14-15-in-2011/H1-Article1-661757.aspx

Các chuyên gia kinh tế dự báo lạm phát ở Ấn Độ tăng 8,5% vào tháng 1/2011

Economists expect inflation to be 8.5% in January

 

PTI

Feb 13, 2011

NEW DELHI: Economists see overall inflation moving up slightly to 8.5% in January because of high food prices and hike in petrol rates last month.

Headline inflation, which also captures the increase in wholesale prices of food commodities, soared to 8.43% in December, from 7.48% in the previous month.

"Inflation in January will continue to remain at around 8.5%. However, it will start moderating February onwards, on the back of a bumper crop," said D K Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

The government is slated to announce the headline, or overall, inflation data on Monday.

As for food inflation, it has remained high during the course of January before declining to a seven-week low of 13.07% towards the end of the month.

Besides high food inflation, the decision of the oil marketing companies to hike petrol prices by about Rs 2.50 per litre with effect from January 15 will impact the headline inflation for month.

Ficci director-general Rajiv Kumar too expects the headline inflation to be around 8.5% in January before declining in subsequent months.

"Headline inflation (based on wholesale prices or WPI) will be 8% by March-end as globally, the crude and commodity prices continue to remain high," Kumar added.

Axis Bank chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said that the decline in food inflation in the last week of January is unlikely to have much of an impact on inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for January.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank has recently raised the March-end forecast for overall inflation to 7% from 5.5% earlier.

 

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Economists-expect-inflation-to-be-85-in-January/articleshow/7486247.cms

Người dân Ấn Độ giận dữ và chỉ trích chính phủ về tham nhũng và lạm phát

India angry, blames govt for corruption, inflation 

 

TNN
Feb 13, 2011

NEW DELHI: Inflation is beginning to hurt seriously, corruption is at an all-time high and the government is not doing enough to tackle either problem. That is the way India's big cities feel on the two big issues dominating headlines in recent months, according to an 8-city survey done exclusively for TOI.

Asked what impact rising prices have had on their household budgets, only 3% said it has had a small impact. About a fifth of all respondents said they had been forced to reduce consumption of some items, one in six said they had put off some purchases, a quarter said it had reduced their savings and a little more than one in three said they had felt all of these impacts.

Asked who was responsible for such runaway prices, six out of seven blamed either the Centre or the state governments or both. Close to two-thirds said the government has not done all it could.

On corruption, the anger is even more evident. An overwhelming 83% said it is at an all-time high. Three out of five blamed politicians for this state of affairs and less than one-third of those polled believed the government is serious about the problem. Almost everybody maintained corruption scandals had tarnished the government's image.

Interestingly, almost two-thirds of the respondents believed that had corruption not been so pervasive, government revenues would have been higher allowing scope for some tax cuts. In other words, the objection to corruption isn't just on moral grounds.

The survey, done by Synovate, a global market research agency, polled almost 2,500 respondents in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Lucknow and covered people from socio-economic categories A, B and C.

Two shocks, different responses
Interestingly, however, there are significant differences in the details of the responses from various cities.

Almost everybody in urban India, for example, admits that rising prices have forced changes in family budgets, but people in different cities seem to have adjusted differently to the economic shock. In Hyderabad, for instance, the predominant response was that it had led to a reduction in consumption levels, with 46% offering that answer. In Mumbai, however, the impact would appear to be mainly in the form of reduced savings with 45% saying that's how they have coped.

Even the perception of who is to blame for this varies across cities. While overall 23% blamed the Centre, 12% blamed the state government and 51% said both were responsible, cities like Ahmedabad, Kolkata and Lucknow, all in Opposition-ruled states, saw the blame sharing skewed more towards the government in New Delhi.

Has the government done all it could to rein in prices? A majority in Delhi took a charitable view on this issue while three-fourths in Chennai returned a decisive NO.

Asked whether the poor have been the worst hit by spiralling prices, overall 46% said yes while 34% said the middle class had been equally badly hit. In Lucknow, however, 75% averred that the poor had indeed been worst hit while Chennai swung to the other extreme with 51% saying no.

Just how much corruption is grabbing mindspace was evident in the fact that 83% said it is at an all-time high, but if that is an impressive figure consider this: in Lucknow 99% said yes and in Hyderabad and Kolkata too the number touched 90%.

Politicians, not surprisingly, emerged as most peoples villains on the issue of corruption, but the mood was particularly marked in Chennai, where 67% blamed the netas, a reflection perhaps of the fact that a prominent Tamil Nadu politician, A Raja, has been at the centre of the most high-profile scam. Mumbai, in contrast, revealed an introspective streak with 41% saying all of us are to blame for corruption.

As on inflation, so also on corruption, Delhiites were the most inclined to be charitable to the government, with 52% saying they believed the government was serious about dealing with corruption. It was joined by Ahmedabad, where 43% trust the governments intent.

It is hardly a surprise that just about every respondent thought the governments image had taken a beating because of the corruption scandals. There were, however, differences on just how badly they have dented its image. Hyderabad was at one end of the spectrum with 80% saying they had very badly damaged the governments image, while Ahmedabad at the other end saw only 33% voicing that opinion.

Could we have lower taxes if we had less of corruption? Again, the responses were varied. The city that most accepted this link was Chennai, with 96% saying taxes could be lowered because less graft would mean more revenues for the government. In contrast, Mumbai and Ahmedabad, arguably the two most economically savvy cities, were most circumspect on this point.

Finally, would an amnesty scheme to flush out black money be a good idea? In a somewhat unanticipated response, 54% said it would. Perhaps just as surprising, the city where the idea was most welcomed was Kolkata (87%), while the one most opposed to it was Hyderabad (74% saying no).

TOI-Synovate mood of the nation survey
*97% say price rise has impacted family budget
*86% blame Centre and state govts for inflation
*62% say govt hasn't done all it can to curb prices
*83% say corruption at all-time high
*60% feel politicians main culprits
*64% say govt not serious about tackling graft
*96% say central govt's image damaged by spate of scams


Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-angry-blames-govt-for-corruption-inflation/articleshow/7485002.cms

Tổ chức thống kê Ấn Độ: Kinh tế Ấn Độ tăng 8,6%

Economy to grow at 8.6 %: CSO

Special Correspondent
The Hindu
New Delhi, February 7, 2011

Governmnet is expecting agriculture and allied activities to grow by 5.4 per cent this fiscal, as against 0.4 per cent a year ago.

Pumped by a strong agriculture growth and allied activities, the Central Government on Monday declared that the economy would grow at an estimated 8.6 per cent during the current financial year as against 8 per cent a year ago.

The gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) are higher than the predictions made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Finance Ministry but are also an indication of the fact that the economy had slowed down somewhat in the second-half of the current financial year.

The Advance Estimates released by CSO on Monday revealed that agriculture and allied activities are likely to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2010-11 as compared to just 0.4 per cent in 2009-10 making a huge stride.

Earlier, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had exuded confidence that the economy would grow by 8.5 per cent despite rising inflation. The RBI had also projected that the economy would expand by 8.5 per cent in its quarterly monetary policy review last month.

The latest GDP growth estimate of 8.6 per cent for the entire fiscal implies that the pace of economic expansion slowed in the second-half of 2010-11, given that GDP growth in the April-September 2010, period stood at 8.9 per cent. According to data released, agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 5.4 per cent this fiscal, as against 0.4 per cent a year ago.

The official figures said growth this fiscal is likely to be driven by an 8.8 per cent expansion in the manufacturing sector, the same as in the year-ago period. According to the advance estimates, mining and quarrying is likely to grow by 6.2 per cent as compared to 6.9 per cent a year ago, while electricity, gas and water production will grow by 5.1 per cent as against 6.4 per cent.

“The growth rate of 8.6 per cent during 2010-11 has been due to the growth rate of over 8 per cent in sectors of manufacturing, construction, trade, hotels, transport and communication, financing, insurance, real estate and business services,” an official statement said here.

During the current fiscal, the trade, hotel, transport and communication sectors are projected to grow by 11 per cent as against 9.7 per cent last fiscal and construction by 8 per cent as compared to 7 per cent in 2009-10. Furthermore, the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sectors are likely to grow by 10.6 per cent this fiscal as against 9.2 per cent last fiscal.

However, community social and personal services are likely to witness a slowdown in growth and register just 5.7 per cent expansion as compared to 11.8 per cent in the year-ago period.

The global financial crisis pulled down the growth of the Indian economy to 6.8 per cent in the 2008-09 fiscal from over 9 per cent in the preceding three years. The advance GDP estimates are released before the end of a financial year to enable the government to formulate various estimates for inclusion in the Budget.

Per capita income

The CSO said India's per capita income was projected to grow by 17.3 per cent to Rs.54,527 in 2010-11 from Rs.46,492 in the year-ago period.

Per capita income is calculated by evenly dividing the national income among the country's population. However, the increase in per capita income would be only 6.7 per cent in 2010-11 if it is calculated on the basis of 2004-05 prices.

Per capita income (at 2004-05 prices) stood at Rs.36,003 in 2010-11 against Rs.33,731 in the previous fiscal, according to the latest data on national income. The size of the economy at current prices is projected to rise to Rs.72,56,571 crore at the end of the current fiscal, up 18.3 per cent from Rs.61,33,230 crore in 2009-10. Based on 2004-05 prices, the Indian economy is projected to expand by 8.6 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2011. This is higher than 8 per cent growth recorded in fiscal 2009-10. The country's population is expected to increase to 118.6 crore at the end of March 2011, from 117 crore in fiscal 2009-10.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1164046.ece?homepage=true

Ngân hàng Trung ương Ấn Độ: các chính sách xanh sẽ gây tổn hại cho FDI

Green policies hurting FDI,says RBI

 

TNN
The Times of India
Jan 25, 2011

MUMBAI: The RBI has said that environment sensitive policies and procedural delays are hurting foreign direct investment.

The moderation in FDI inflows to India during April-November 2010 has been driven by sectors such as construction,mining and business services.A major reason for the decline in inward FDI is reported to have been the environment sensitive policies pursued,as manifested in the recent episodes in the mining sector,integrated township projects and construction of ports,which appear to have affected the investors sentiments,the RBI said The report adds that persistent procedural delays,land acquisition issues and availability of quality infrastructure have added to the environment related issues.These factors,which are more structural in nature,if addressed expeditiously,could raise the share of India in the projected FDI flows to EMEs in the near future,the RBI said.

The central bank said that while the subdued growth of services receipts is cyclical in nature and can be expected to resolve with the global recovery becoming more broad-based and robust,the rise in crude oil prices and reasons for moderation in FDI are more structural in nature.Since supply of crude oil is relatively inelastic,the economy needs to adjust itself in the medium-term by investing in the use of non-conventional sources of energy.As regards FDI flows,the reform process needs to be expedited to address the impediments,it said.

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Green-policies-hurting-FDIsays-RBI-/articleshow/7358070.cms

Ngân hàng Trung ương Ấn Độ tăng lãi suất ngân hàng thêm 0,25%

RBI hikes repo, reverse repo rates by 25 bps

 

AGENCIES,
The Times of India
Jan 25, 2011

MUMBAI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resumed its rate hike cycle at its quarterly monetary policy review on Tuesday as soaring inflation stalks Asia's third-largest economy. RBI raised repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points each.

Repo rate , the one at which RBI lends to banks will now be 6.50%, reverse repo, the rate banks receive for depositing funds with the central bank will be at 5.50%. Cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits that banks have to keep aside, was left untouched at 6%.

RBI also raised March inflation forecast to 7% from 5.5%. The central bank maintained that India's GDP will grow at 8.5% for FY-2011.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government is being blamed by Opposition for failing to save the majority from price increases, where wholesale price index (WPI) in December rose to 8.43% and October gains were raised to 9.12%. Food prices are advancing at more than 15%. Bajaj, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel , Hindalco have all increased prices due to soaring input costs.

Profit margins for companies such as battery-maker Exide Industries have shrunk.

Subbarao raised policy rates six times in 2010 by 25 basis points each, but that turned out to be too little. In contrast, his predecessor YV Reddy often shocked the markets. It has been the most aggressive major central bank in Asia this year.

Industrial output fell to an 18-month low in November with production growing at a slow 2.7 percent.

RBI on Monday said that containing inflation would be the top priority as high rate of price rise could hurt the economic growth. In its assessment of inflation, though the central bank has spoken at length on the supply-side constraints, it has after a long time acknowledged that high food and fuel inflation pose a risk of spillover to core inflation through higher input costs and inflation expectations.

The RBI, however, was optimistic about the economy's growth saying that the robust gross domestic product growth in the first half of the current fiscal suggested that the economy had returned to its earlier high growth path.


Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/RBI-hikes-repo-reverse-repo-rates-by-25-bps/articleshow/7359243.cms

Ấn Độ nhận 55 tỉ kiều hối vào năm 2010

India to receive $55 billion remittances in 2010

 

PTI
The Times of India
Nov 14, 2010

DUBAI: Indian expatriates are expected to remit about $55 billion into the country this year as the number of emigrants from the nation is likely to clock 11.4 million, a new World Bank report said.

India is likely to stay as the top receiver of remittances in 2010, as inflows of $51 billion to China keeps it a place down, with Mexico at third spot, expecting $22.6 billion from its overseas population.

The World Bank in its 'Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011' report said worldwide inflows are expected to reach $440 billion by the year end, with remittances to developing nations are likely to reach a record $325 billion from the 2009 figure of $307 billion.

The top remitting countries in 2009 were United States ($48.3 billion), Saudi Arabia ($26 billion) and Switzerland ($19.6 billion).

Remittances remained a resilient of external financing during the recent global financial crisis and were steady despite the pangs of financial reconstruction in the developed world, the report said.

As high-income countries remain the main source of remittance flows, migration to the developed economies grouping saw an increase.

India ranks second in the top three emigration countries with 11.4 million of its population chose overseas destinations. Mexico tops the chart with 11.9 million figure and Russia getting third position having 11.1 million people working in other countries.

India-UAE is among the top 10 migration corridors with 2.2 million migrants. Mexico-US is expected to be the largest migration corridor in the world, followed by Russia-Ukraine, Ukraine-Russia and Bangladesh-India.

World Bank said majority of expatriates in the Gulf hail from India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Philippines, Bangladesh, Yemen, Iran and Sudan.

According to the Factbook 2011, the top migrant destination country remains the United States that kept 42.8 million immigrants, followed by Russia (12.3 million), Germany (10.8 million, Saudi Arabia (7.3 million), Canada (7.2 million), United Kingdom (7.0 million), Spain (6.9 million), France (6.7 million), Australia (5.5 million), India (5.4 million), Ukraine (5.3 million), Italy (4.5 million) and Pakistan (4.2 million).

The top immigration countries relative to population are Qatar - 87%, Monaco - 72%, UAE - 70%, Kuwait - 69% and Andorra - 64%.


Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-to-receive-55-billion-remittances-in-2010/articleshow/6923217.cms

Xuất khẩu tháng 12 năm 2010 của Ấn Độ tăng cao nhất trong vòng 33 tháng

Exports grow highest in 33 months in Dec

PTI, Jan 8, 2011
The Times of India

NEW DELHI: India's exports showed a "remarkable" annual growth of 36.4 per cent, highest in the last 33 months, with consignments in December 2010 raising prospects of the country exporting $215-225 billion worth of merchandise in the current fiscal.

Exports in December aggregated $22.5 billion, while imports contracted by 11.1 per cent to $25.1 billion, resulting in a narrow trade deficit of $2.6 billion, the lowest in three years.

"The US markets have been (doing) pretty good, even EU markets are good," commerce secretary Rahul Khullar said here while giving the trade figures.

A "remarkable job by exports" was also attributed to diversification of India's export markets. For instance, 112 per cent rise in engineering exports was helped much by orders from Latin American countries like Columbia, he said.

Khullar said thanks to lowering of trade deficit, India's worries on overall current account deficit would be abated. The overall trade gap may not be more than $120 billion for this year, against earlier apprehensions of $130-135 billion.

The government had set an export target of $200 billion for 2010-11.

"It is quite clear that the Indian exports are on a rebound," said Rakesh Mohan Joshi of Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT).

In December, the exporting sectors registered higher growth, which includes engineering (112 per cent), electronics (88 per cent), man made fibres (30 per cent), yarns (65 per cent) and drugs (810 per cent).

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Exports-grow-highest-in-33-months-in-Dec/articleshow/7241899.cms

Ấn Độ thay thế Mỹ trở thành nền kinh tế lớn thứ 2 thế giới vào năm 2050

'India to replace U.S. as 2nd largest economy by 2050'

PTI
The Hindu
January 7, 2011

Helped by its strong demographic dividend, India is poised to overtake the U.S. to emerge as the second largest economy in purchasing power parity terms by 2050, says PwC. A scene at a mall in Coimbatore. Photo: K Ananthan

India is poised to overtake the USA and emerge as the World’s second largest economy on purchasing power parity basis by 2050 and has the potential to supersede China to the top spot, says a report published by PwC.

China is expected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy sometimes before 2020, according to the report.

“India, helped by its strong demographic dividend, is poised to overtake the U.S. to emerge as the second largest economy in purchasing power parity terms by 2050,” says Jairaj Purandare, PwC India Regional Managing Partner and Leader (Markets and Industries) in the report, ‘The World in 2050’

Economic size in terms of purchasing power parity measures the GDP of a nation based on the purchasing power of a local currency.

The report says India, which was at the fourth position in terms of purchasing power parity in 2009, will move to the second rank by 2050, after China. The U.S., will slip to the third spot by that period.

It also notes that India’s trend growth is expected to overtake China at some point due to the country having a significantly younger and faster growing working age population than China.

India is expected to achieve the most significant increases in share of the world GDP at Market Exchange Rates (MERs) by 2050. In 2009, India’s share of world GDP at MERs was just 2 per cent. By 2050, this share could grow to around 13 per cent.

India has the potential to be the fastest growing large economy in the world over the period to 2050, with a GDP at the end of this period to be close to 83 per cent of that of the US at Market Exchange Rates, or 14 per cent larger than the US in terms of purchasing power parities.

“The global financial crisis has further accelerated the shift in economic power to the emerging economies.

Over the coming decade, the Indian economy is likely to become less dependent on outsourcing and more focused on manufacturing exports, building on its strong engineering skills and the rising levels of education of its population,” Purandare adds.

Lower labour force growth due to one child policy means China’s growth will slow down progressively while India will remain fairly strong.

However, according to the report, despite slowdown in population growth, China is expected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy sometime before 2020.

However, India will be able to fully realise its great potential only if it continues to pursue the growth-friendly economic policies of the last two decades.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1058311.ece

Ấn Độ, Trung Quốc tiếp tục dẫn dắt tăng trưởng kinh tế châu Á: IMF

India, China to continue leading Asian economic growth: IMF

PTI, The Hindu

Two Asian giants, India and China, would continue to lead the economic growth story of this continent, a top International Monetary Fund (IMF) official has said.

“We expect growth to remain strong. We expect it to settle at a more sustainable rate of about 7 per cent for Asia as a whole, slightly down from 8 percent in 2010. We see China and India continuing to lead Asia’s growth,” IMF Head (Asia—Pacific) Anoop Singh said.

“Despite this positive outlook, there are still downside risks, but these mainly come from the external environment: the risk that global growth could be weaker than we anticipate.

Also, financial spillovers from advanced countries, especially in Europe, could be another source of concern, and constitute another downside risk,” Singh said in interview to the IMF online survey.

However he warned that the strength of Asia’s growth could lead to the threat of inflation.

Asia had to contend with the risks posed by possibly weaker global economic growth and financial spillovers from advanced economies, he suggested, but predicted that the region’s economic importance would continue to increase, he added.

“I think what you’ve been seeing in the last decade has been the further rise of Asia, and this time I will say it is a large part due to the rapid growth in China and India and this is expected to continue over the medium and the long term,” Singh said in response to a question.

Certainly the region has a certain dependence that needs to be rebalanced so that the momentum comes from a broader set of policies, he said.

“It is true that across Asia the region has been more dependent on exports than other emerging markets in the world.

And, therefore, in order to maintain these high growth rates, we do believe the region should reduce its reliance on export growth and we have emphasised the importance of rebalancing. That is, to raise domestic demand in Asia. This is also a major topic in our discussions with countries in Asia,” Singh said.

In 2011, he said Asia will face two set of challenges.

The first will involve managing the timing and exit from policy stimulus that many countries in Asia have used.

“This is because output is growing above potential in most economies. In fact, output gaps are closing and inflation pressures are emerging. So, our view is that although many countries have taken steps to remove monetary stimulus, there still is further room to remove policy stimulus,” he said.

“So I think the withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus needs to be accelerated and this needs to be managed in conjunction with stronger currencies...We need greater upward flexibility in the currencies of many countries in Asia,” he argued.

“The second point is how to manage capital inflows that have clearly flooded many parts of Asia. Partly this is due to the growth divergence. We see higher growth in Asia compared to advanced economies,” Singh said.

“On one hand, these inflows certainly present many opportunities, but we need to build the economic framework to ensure these capital inflows can create momentum for investment and broader coordination over the medium term,” he said.

“However, in the near term, they create challenges for financial stability. And, therefore, countries are taking measures—including macroprudential measures—to try to deal with them.

I do believe that there is more room to take macroeconomic measures and also I will say that greater exchange rate flexibility offers an important buffer against the risks we see posed by the large capital inflows,” Singh said.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1038393.ece

Ấn Độ: Lạm phát giá cả lương thực tăng 18,32% năm 2010

Food inflation zooms to 18.32%

The Hindu
January 6, 2011

Traders sort onions at a market in Guwahati

Much to the discomfiture of the Centre and in a further jolt to the common man, food inflation zoomed to almost a year's high at 18.32 per cent for the week ended December 25, 2010, owing to a spurt in the prices of vegetables, onions and milk.

The sudden spurt in the wholesale price index-based food inflation from 14.44 per cent a mere week ago — and more than double of what it was a month earlier — has not only surprised the government but also reduced it to helplessness, saying prices are not “fully” within its control. 

 

Source:  http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1038324.ece

Ấn Độ vượt qua Trung Quốc trở thành thị trường thu hút nhiều nhất đầu tư của các công ty Nhật Bản

India overtakes China as most attractive market for Japanese firms

PTI, Jan 5, 2011

TOKYO: India has overtaken China as the most attractive overseas investment destination for Japanese manufacturers over the next decade amid increased labor costs in China, according to a survey.
China, however, remained the most popular investment destination over the next three years in the survey conducted last summer, having retained top spot since fiscal 1992 when the state-backed financial institution began conducting the survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.
The result suggests an increasing number of Japanese companies are aiming to diversify foreign investment amid caution about rising labor costs and anti-Japanese demonstrations in China.
An additional survey conducted in November in the wake of bilateral tension over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea provided further evidence of the trend.
China no longer dominates Japanese foreign investment and Japanese companies "are increasingly turning their attention to emerging markets as India and Vietnam," said Toshiharu Mimura, a senior economist at JBIC.
In the survey conducted in the summer of 2010, in which multiple responses were allowed, 74.9 per cent of the 605 Japanese manufacturers selected India as their investment destination over the next 10 years, compared with 71.7 per cent that chose China. In the previous year, China was first and India second.
As a destination over a shorter period, China came top at 77.3 per cent, followed by India at 60.5 per cent, Vietnam at 32.2 per cent, Thailand at 26.2 per cent, and Brazil at 24.6 per cent.
The companies that chose China and India said they viewed the two markets as having high growth potential.
Many companies, however, expressed concern over rising personnel costs in China amid the country's rapid economic growth, as well as labor issues, apparently reflecting a recent rise in disputes between Japanese firms and Chinese workers seeking wage hikes.
In the follow-up study to gauge the investment stance of Japanese companies after maritime collisions between a Chinese trawler and Japanese patrol boats near the disputed Senkaku Islands in September, 24.8 per cent responded that China was not as attractive as before, while 46.9 said it was important to reduce their dependence on China and diversify investment risks.

Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/India-overtakes-China-as-most-attractive-market-for-Japanese-firms/articleshow/7222416.cms#ixzz1ADcOFWuV

Thâm hụt tài khoản vãng lai của Ấn Độ tăng 72% lên 15,8 tỉ USD

Current account deficit surges 72 % to $15.8 b in July-Sept

 

The Hindu

India's current account deficit, representing net flow of income out of the country barring capital movements, surged 72 per cent to $15.8 billion in the July-September quarter over the same period last year.

The increase in current account deficit (CAD) during the period under review is due to higher imports.

This is largely on account of economic recovery and larger payments overseas for certain services, according to the data on Balance of Payments (BoP) released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the corresponding period last year, current account deficit stood at $9.2 billion.

The current account deficit, which includes deficit in external trade of goods, services, besides net investment income, stood at 2.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last fiscal, and experts believe that it will increase a bit to 3 per cent of GDP this fiscal. However, if this trend continues, current account deficit may turn out to be much higher than 3 per cent.

The net outflow of money on current account was, however, more than offset by inflow on capital account, despite moderation in foreign direct investment (FDI). Higher capital inflows were due to higher investment in capital markets by foreign funds, external commercial borrowings by India Inc and external assistance, the data showed.

During the July-September quarter, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) put in $18.8 billion, while it was only $7 billion in the same period last fiscal. However, foreign direct investment fell to $2.5 billion during the period under reference from $7.5 billion in the year-ago period.

As external commercial borrowings among other overseas debts rose, India's external debt rose by 12.8 per cent to $295.8 billion in the first half of 2010-11.

With the country receiving more capital inflows than its deficit on current account, there was net accretion of $3.3 billion to foreign exchange reserves.

Current account deficit climbed because imports rose to $177.5 billion from $138.4 billion a year-ago, as economy was on the uptick, reverting to high 8.9 per cent growth in the second quarter of this fiscal. Though exports also rose to $110.5 billion from $82.6 billion, the much higher imports led to trade deficit widening to $66.9 billion from $55.9 billion. The country also received less inflow of money in services and investment income on net basis at $39.1 billion against $42.5 billion in July-September 2009.

This is attributed to higher payments for travel, business and financial services abroad. 

 

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1021266.ece?homepage=true; accessed 1 Jan. 2011