Trung Quốc thay thế Nhật Bản trở thành nền kinh tế lớn thứ 2 thế giới

Japan eclipsed by China as world Number 2 economy

Agence France-Presse
Tokyo, February 14, 2011
 

Japan lost its 42-year ranking as the world's second-biggest economy to China in 2010, with data out on Monday showing a contraction in the last quarter due to weak consumer spending and a strong yen. While Japan was expected to fall behind a surging China in the year, the data underlined the weak state of a Japanese economy burdened by deflation, soft domestic demand and pressured by the industrialised world's biggest debt.

"It is difficult for the deflation-plagued Japanese economy to achieve self-sustained growth," said Naoki Murakami, chief economist at Monex Securities.

While China's leap forward reflects a shift in economic power as the country transforms itself from poverty-hit communist state to global heavyweight, it highlights the need for shrinking Japan to energise its economy, analysts said.

Japan's post-war "economic miracle" put it at number two behind the United States for more than four decades, but stagnation after the Japanese property bubble burst in the 1990s helped put booming China on course to supplant its neighbour.

However, Japan remains around 10 times richer on a per-capita basis, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Predictions vary as to when China may overtake the United States as number one economy, but it should happen by 2025, according to estimates by the World Bank, Goldman Sachs and others.

Japan's real gross domestic product slipped by an annualised 1.1% in the October-December quarter as the expiration of auto subsidies hit car sales, a new tobacco tax sapped cigarette demand and a strong yen hurt exports.

While the first contraction in five quarters was not as severe as forecasts of a 2.4% slide, Japanese GDP data is subject to constant revision.

The economy grew 3.9% in 2010, its first annual growth in three years. But this was not enough to keep it ahead of surging China.

Nominal GDP of $5.474 trillion in 2010 put Japan behind China's $5.879 trillion, the data showed.

Despite Japan crawling out of a severe year-long recession in 2009, its recovery remains fragile with deflation, high public debt, weak domestic demand and a strong yen all concerns for policymakers.

Pressure is on Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who has seen his approval ratings tumble as his government looks to boost the economy without deepening the debt amid a legislative impasse over his $1.1 trillion budget for the next fiscal year.

In January Standard & Poor's cut Japan's credit rating one notch to "AA-" from "AA", saying the government lacked a "coherent strategy" to ease a debt running near 200% of GDP, the highest of any developed nation.

Nearly a third of government spending is being swallowed up by a social security system catering to a rapidly greying society, Standard & Poor's warned, with that ratio set to rise without reforms as Japan continues to age.

Kan's centre-left government has prioritised social security reform and a tax system overhaul, but the opposition has so far refused to begin talks on the issue.

Private consumption, accounting for about 60% of Japan's GDP, slid by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in October-December as subsidies for green car purchases expired and as cigarette sales were dented by Japan's biggest ever tobacco tax hike.

Exports slipped in the quarter as the yen surged to 15-year highs against the dollar, making Japanese goods more expensive overseas and eroding repatriated profits.

But many analysts expect the economy to rebound in the January-March quarter as the rising tide of global recovery lifts Japan, amid a recent pick-up in corporate spending and exports.

"The contraction will not last long," said Murakami. "Companies' manufacturing activities are recovering rapidly in January-March this year from their bottom in October 2010."

The government said that Japan's economy would be helped by recovery elsewhere and could reap the benefits of its huge neighbour China, the world's number-one export market.

"We welcome, as a neighbouring nation, that China's economy is advancing rapidly," said Kaoru Yosano, minister for fiscal policy.


Source: http://www.hindustantimes.com/Japan-eclipsed-by-China-as-world-Number-2-economy/H1-Article1-662108.aspx

Ấn Độ, Trung Quốc tiếp tục dẫn dắt tăng trưởng kinh tế châu Á: IMF

India, China to continue leading Asian economic growth: IMF

PTI, The Hindu

Two Asian giants, India and China, would continue to lead the economic growth story of this continent, a top International Monetary Fund (IMF) official has said.

“We expect growth to remain strong. We expect it to settle at a more sustainable rate of about 7 per cent for Asia as a whole, slightly down from 8 percent in 2010. We see China and India continuing to lead Asia’s growth,” IMF Head (Asia—Pacific) Anoop Singh said.

“Despite this positive outlook, there are still downside risks, but these mainly come from the external environment: the risk that global growth could be weaker than we anticipate.

Also, financial spillovers from advanced countries, especially in Europe, could be another source of concern, and constitute another downside risk,” Singh said in interview to the IMF online survey.

However he warned that the strength of Asia’s growth could lead to the threat of inflation.

Asia had to contend with the risks posed by possibly weaker global economic growth and financial spillovers from advanced economies, he suggested, but predicted that the region’s economic importance would continue to increase, he added.

“I think what you’ve been seeing in the last decade has been the further rise of Asia, and this time I will say it is a large part due to the rapid growth in China and India and this is expected to continue over the medium and the long term,” Singh said in response to a question.

Certainly the region has a certain dependence that needs to be rebalanced so that the momentum comes from a broader set of policies, he said.

“It is true that across Asia the region has been more dependent on exports than other emerging markets in the world.

And, therefore, in order to maintain these high growth rates, we do believe the region should reduce its reliance on export growth and we have emphasised the importance of rebalancing. That is, to raise domestic demand in Asia. This is also a major topic in our discussions with countries in Asia,” Singh said.

In 2011, he said Asia will face two set of challenges.

The first will involve managing the timing and exit from policy stimulus that many countries in Asia have used.

“This is because output is growing above potential in most economies. In fact, output gaps are closing and inflation pressures are emerging. So, our view is that although many countries have taken steps to remove monetary stimulus, there still is further room to remove policy stimulus,” he said.

“So I think the withdrawal of monetary and fiscal stimulus needs to be accelerated and this needs to be managed in conjunction with stronger currencies...We need greater upward flexibility in the currencies of many countries in Asia,” he argued.

“The second point is how to manage capital inflows that have clearly flooded many parts of Asia. Partly this is due to the growth divergence. We see higher growth in Asia compared to advanced economies,” Singh said.

“On one hand, these inflows certainly present many opportunities, but we need to build the economic framework to ensure these capital inflows can create momentum for investment and broader coordination over the medium term,” he said.

“However, in the near term, they create challenges for financial stability. And, therefore, countries are taking measures—including macroprudential measures—to try to deal with them.

I do believe that there is more room to take macroeconomic measures and also I will say that greater exchange rate flexibility offers an important buffer against the risks we see posed by the large capital inflows,” Singh said.

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article1038393.ece