Báo cáo Quốc hội Mỹ: Pakistan tiến gần hơn với Trung Quốc

Pakistan moving closer to China: CRS

Press Trust Of India
Washington, October 28, 2011

With deepening of India-US relationship and deterioration in the ties between Washington and Islamabad, Pakistan is moving closer to China, a Congressional report has said. "As US-India ties deepen and US-Pakistan ties appear to deteriorate, many observers see Islamabad becoming more reliant than ever on its friendship with Beijing," said the latest report on Pakistan by the independent Congressional Research Service.

"US-Pakistan acrimony in the wake of OBL's death appears to have increased Pakistan's reliance on China as a key international ally.

"Pakistani leaders have become notably more and perhaps overly effusive in their expressions of closeness with China in 2011," it said.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's visit to China in May elicited no major new embrace from Beijing, but the Chinese government did insist that the West "must respect" Pakistan's sovereignty, the report said.

China also agreed to expedite delivery to Pakistan of 50 JF-17 fighter jets equipped with upgraded avionics (Islamabad is also negotiating with Beijing for the purchase of six new submarines for as much as $3 billion in what would be the largest-ever bilateral defense purchase.

"The Islamabad government suffered some embarrassment when its defense minister, upon returning from the same trip, claimed that the Chinese would assume control of the deep-water port at Gwadar that it had helped to build and, further, that Beijing would convert the port for military use," the CRS said adding that the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed having no knowledge of the purported plans.

According to the CRS there were concerns among some in Congress and independent analysts that wreckage from a previously unseen "stealth" helicopter used by US Special Forces in the Osama bin Laden raid would be examined by Chinese officials, potentially providing them with valuable intelligence on secret US military technology.

"Beijing apparently did express interest in examining the wreckage and, despite Pakistani assurances that no Chinese officials had been given access to it, US intelligence sources reportedly believe that Chinese military engineers were, in fact, given access to the wreckage before it was returned to US custody," it said.

Pakistan appeared to react quickly and with purpose in August when Beijing publicly blamed Islamist militants trained in Pakistan for terrorist activities in China's western Xinjiang province, the report said.

"ISI director Pasha was dispatched to Beijing with the apparent aim of assuaging China. Yet Beijing's willingness to take Islamabad more fully under its wings appears limited.

"The hesitation is rooted at least partly in China's concerns about the rise of Islamist extremism in Pakistan and some disappointment with progress in developing the Gwadar port, which suffers from a poor road network and geographical isolation," it said.

The Chinese government is unlikely to place itself in the middle of any US-Pakistani rift, nor has it shown any desire to replace Washington as Islamabad's primary foreign benefactor, the report said.

Nguồn: Hindustan Times,
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Americas/Pakistan-moving-closer-to-China-CRS/Article1-762017.aspx

Ấn Độ: Lạm phát lương thực tăng lên mức 11,43%

Food inflation spurts to 11.43%

Special Correspondent
New Delhi, October 27, 2011

No statistical anomaly of base effect

Having breached the psychological barrier, food inflation raced ahead to 11.43 per cent for the week ended October 15 from 10.60 per cent in the previous week owing to a relentless surge in prices of vegetables, fruits, milk and protein-rich items.

The WPI (Wholesale Price Index) on food inflation released here on Thursday shows that while vegetables were 25 per cent dearer on a year-on-year basis, fruits turned more expensive by 11.96 per cent and milk by 10.85 per cent. Alongside, eggs, meat and fish were also costlier by 12.82 per cent.

What is hurting the common man all the more is that this fresh bout of double-digit inflation is over and above the 14.20 per cent spurt witnessed during the same week in October, 2010. In effect, there is no statistical anomaly of base effect in play in the current surge in prices which is very close to the high of 11.53 per cent recorded for the week ended April 9 this year.

Dearer edibles

More disconcerting for the authorities is the fact that edibles such as pulses and cereals — prices of which had eased in recent months — have started to become more expensive and turned dearer by 9.06 per cent and 4.62 per cent, respectively, on a yearly basis.

Items which tended to cost less on an annual basis, however, were onions with their prices declining by 18.93 per cent while wheat and potatoes also turned cheaper by 0.95 per cent and 0.45 per cent, respectively.

In a way, the spurt in food inflation, which has a significant share in the overall price spiral, vindicates the rate hike and the policy stance taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In its annual review, the apex bank had estimated headline inflation to remain high till December this year before tapering down to about 7 per cent by the end of the fiscal year in March, 2012.

Noting that real wage inflation has extended into the first quarter of the current fiscal, the RBI, in its second quarter review said: “Food inflation is likely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP [Minimum Support Price] revisions.”

Significantly, headline inflation, which also accounts for the price surge in manufactured items, has hovered above 9 per cent since December, 2010 and stood pegged at 9.72 per cent in September this year.

Nguồn: The Hindu,
http://www.thehindu.com/business/article2573526.ece?homepage=true

Ernst & Young: kinh tế Ấn Độ tăng trưởng nhanh hơn Trung Quốc vào năm 2013

'India to grow faster than China'

TNN | Oct 25, 2011

NEW DELHI: India is expected to record higher growth than China in 2013 and the two Asian powerhouses are expected to be less impacted among the 25 rapid growth markets in case of a deterioration of the Eurozone debt crisis, a report by Ernst & Young said on Monday.

The first Rapid Growth Markets (RGMs) forecast released on Monday attributes India and China's ability to better withstand a likely slowdown to the large size of their domestic markets and the effects of lower oil and commodity prices. The forecast pegs India's real GDP growth rate at 9.5% in 2013 followed by China at 9%. In 2014, India is expected to grow at 9% and China at 8.6%. In the current fiscal year, the Indian economy is expected to slow down to 7.2% from 8.2% achieved in 2010. A modest recovery to 8% is expected in the 2012 calendar year, the report said.

"While the overall outlook for India is positive, the country will need to address rising inflation. Provided India's inflation does start to fall back by the end of this year, and the US and EU economies do not slip back into recession, the 'soft patch' for Indian growth should be relatively short-lived. Once inflation is in check, and interest rates are no longer rising, consumers will be more willing to spend, supporting a general improvement in the business environment, with growth steadily accelerating during 2012," the report added.
India enjoys an advantage in its high savings and investment rates, currently a third of GDP; a relatively low GDP per capita on purchasing power parity giving significant potential for growth and continuing industrialisation and urbanisation, it said. "India's consumption-led economy continues to make the country a highly attractive investment destination in the short-to-medium term.

Its domestic demand-driven growth model has helped the country weather the volatility in the global markets, providing significant growth opportunities to businesses," said Farokh Balsara, partner at Ernst & Young India.

The RGMs are expected to grow collectively by 6.2% this year, almost four times more than the growth expected in the Eurozone. While the overall outlook for the RGMs is positive, these economies also have to deal with a number of challenges including inflationary pressures arising from overheating; managing the impact of capital inflows and ensuring that their infrastructure is sufficient to support long-term growth.

In the case of a disorderly Eurozone debt crisis that leads to a prolonged recession in the Eurozone and a stagnation of growth in the US in 2012-13, the forecast believes GDP growth would be cut to 3.2% across the Rapid Growth Markets in 2013, much lower than the 6.2% which is currently expected.
 

Nguồn: The Times of India,
http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=6875571929711194275

Nhà nghiên cứu: Trung Quốc góp phần làm tăng lạm phát ở Ấn Độ

Rising export prices from China add inflationary pressure to India

 

15 Oct, 2011

NEW DELHI: There is a China hand in India's inflation, one important reason why the steady rise in interest rates may not be cooling the high inflation. About 25% of imported inputs that go into manufacture of goods produced locally are imported from China. In addition, a third of consumer goods imported into India come from China.

The inflation in goods exported by China was 10% in July, much higher than its overall inflation of 6.1% during September. "Since a majority of India's imports of manufactured goods come from China, higher nonfood inflation there is feeding into higher prices in India through tradeables," said Bibek Debroy, professor at the Center for Policy Research, a think tank.

The 15% appreciation in the China's currency during the last six months has added to the rising labour costs in the country, making manufactured products expensive. In fact, not only India, but almost the entire world is feeling the impact of the higher export prices from China, the country's biggest trading partner now. A report by the International Monetary Fund on Thursday has devoted extensive space to analyse the impact China's high inflation on other countries.

China's supply and demand shocks can have significant spillovers to the region, the study concludes. This imported inflation is adding to the general rise in input costs, higher interest payments and wage pressures, making the monetary policy ineffective in taming inflation. "Rate hikes can't affect prices of tradeables by lowering demand.

So, to the extent the price rise in manufactured goods is imported from China, monetary policy cannot deal with it," said Ajay Shah, professor National institute of public policy and finance. Out of India's total imports, 27% of iron and steel, 18% of chemicals, 24% of manufactured metals come from China where annual non-food inflation rate is at a 10-year high. According to the September wholesale price index (WPI) estimates, the inflation in iron and semis, basic metal products/alloys and chemicals was 21%, 11% and 9%, respectively.

In addition, imports of other manufactured goods, such as projects goods and machine parts, 25-50% of which is sourced from China, are used as inputs for production of final goods. Therefore, price rise in China also pushes up prices of such final goods. "Rising export prices from China will likely add some inflationary pressure to the rest of the world," a recent report by Nomura said.

The export price index for Chinese goods rose by 10% y-o-y in July 2011, driven by a 13% annual rise in wages since 2005 and 15% appreciation in Yuan over the last six months. Principal advisor in the planning commission and former chief statistician Pronab Sen sees a bigger impact of China's inflation in the future.

"So far, we haven't seen the full impact of the wage rise in China on Indian prices, the major effect will come later," he said. The point is underscored in the IMF analysis as well. "Chinese inflation has been relatively elevated in recent quarters, and demographic and policy changes (such as the removal of subsidies on input costs) are expected to result in a structural increase in inflation over the coming years", the IMF report says.
 

Nguồn: The Economic Times,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/rising-export-prices-from-china-add-inflationary-pressure-to-india/articleshow/10361586.cms

Dự trữ ngoại tệ của Ấn Độ tăng thêm 749 triệu USD vào tháng 10/2011

Forex reserves rise by $749 million

PTI 

Oct 14, 2011

MUMBAI: After sliding for two consecutive weeks, the country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $749 million to $312.231 billion, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.

The reserves had fallen by $1.23 billion in the previous reporting week to $311.48 billion.

Foreign currency assets, the biggest component of foreign reserves, were up by $763 million to $276.462 billion for the week ended October 7, the apex bank said in its weekly data released this evening.
Foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of the non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen, held in the reserves, the apex bank said.

The country's gold reserves remained unchanged at $28.667 billion, the apex bank data said. Both the special drawing rights (SDRs) and country's reserve position in the International Monetary Fund were down marginally during the week, the central bank said.

The SDRs slipped by $9 million to $4.495 billion while India's reserve position in IMF was down by $5 million to $2.607 billion, the apex bank data said.
 

Nguồn: The Times of India,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Forex-reserves-rise-by-749-million/articleshow/10356841.cms

Lạm phát của Ấn Độ sắp tăng lên mức 2 con số

Inflation close to double-digit

New Delhi
October 14, 2011

Much to the chagrin of India Inc. as well as fresh home and auto loan borrowers, headline inflation continued to hover near double digits at 9.72 per cent in September leaving no room for a pause in rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) later this month.

The WPI (Wholesale Price Index) data for September released here on Friday revealed that even as headline inflation during the month was a tad lower than 9.78 per cent in August this year, it was way higher than 8.98 per cent in September, 2010.

Contributing to the surge in prices were all items, cutting across food and manufactured products. While food articles turned 9.23 per cent dearer on a year-on-year basis with vegetable prices up by over 14 per cent during the month, so were manufactured items which, accounting for a share of 65 per cent in the WPI, turned more expensive by 7.69 per cent. Even as key policy rate hikes by the RBI for a dozen times since March, 2010, do not appear to have tamed inflation but only resulted in a slowdown in industrial and overall economic growth, the fact remains that headline inflation in June has been revised up to 9.36 per cent from 9.22 per cent estimated earlier. In the event, both the provisional inflation figures for August and September are certain to breach the 10 per cent mark on final revision as compared to the RBI's ‘comfort zone' of 5 per cent. In a clear indication of what should be expected during the apex bank's policy review later this month, RBI Deputy Governor K. C. Chakrabarty noted that interest rates will have to move in tune with inflation since there is no other mechanism to check the price rise. “If inflation goes up, interest rates will go up anywhere in the world... I have no other [monetary policy] instrument available with me [to anchor inflationary expectations],” he said on the sidelines of a FICCI function here while pointing out that inflation “is not high because of interest rates. It is high inflation that has led to an increase in interest rates.”

Holding a similar view in conversation with a private TV channel, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C. Rangarajan said: “It is not a very comfortable situation. For the monetary policy stance to change, inflation has to come down and show signs of definite decline. But that kind of an indication has not come...”

Despite the 350 basis point hike in policy rates since March last year, inflation in manufactured items has been creeping up from February this year when it breached the six per cent mark. The relentless rise in prices by way of generalised inflation has been a major cause for worry.

“Repeated rate hikes have failed to control the rate of price rise,” Deloitte, Haskins & Sells director Anis Charkravarty said.

Nguồn: The Hindu,
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2537051.ece

Ấn Độ dành cho Myanmar khoản tín dụng trị giá 500 triệu USD

India extends credit line of $500m to Myanmar 

 

Sachin Parashar
TNN
Oct 15, 2011

NEW DELHI: Lending more substance to its Look East policy, India on Friday extended a credit line of $500 million to Myanmar to help develop infrastructure in the country which is seeing a civilian government after several decades.

The announcement followed a meeting between visiting President U Thein Sein and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during which the two countries discussed security, mainly insurgency in the north-east, and agreed to expand cooperation in the field of oil and natural gas.

The announcement came even as the Myanmar President conveyed gratitude for earlier lines of credit amounting to nearly $300 million that had been extended by India, including for the development of railways, transport, power transmission lines and oil refineries. Singh's engagement with President Sein came just two days after his meeting with Vietnam President Truong Tan Sang. With both Vietnam and Myanmar passing through a difficult phase in their relations with China, India's engagement with both these countries has evoked interest internationally despite Indian authorities steadfastly denying any one-upmanship with Beijing.

Energy-rich Myanmar also agreed to encourage further investments by Indian companies from both public and private sectors in oil and natural gas. The first civilian president in almost 50 years, Sein came to India accompanied by as many as 13 ministers.

On the issue of insurgency in the north-east, the two leaders agreed on enhancing effective cooperation and coordination between the security forces of the two countries in tackling the issue.

"The two leaders reiterated the assurance that the territory of either would not be allowed for activities inimical to the other and resolved not to allow their respective territory to be used for training, sanctuary and other operations by terrorist and insurgent organizations and their operatives,'' said a joint statement issued after the meeting.

Two pacts were also inked for the upgradation of Yangon Children's Hospital and Sittwe General Hospital and Programme of Cooperation in Science and Technology for the period of 2012-2015. On the issue of border management, the two leaders directed the heads of the survey department of India and Myanmar to jointly work out and implement a schedule for inspection and maintenance of boundary pillars in the open season in 2011-12 in a time bound manner.

Expressing satisfaction at the implementation of the ambitious Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, they decided to start the road component of the project at the earliest. They also agreed to open an additional border trade point to allow smooth flow of commerce to be generated by the Kaladan Project which will also allow India to transport goods to the north-east through the water route.

Singh congratulated the Myanmar President on the transition towards democracy and offered all necessary assistance in "further strengthening this democratic transition in an inclusive and broad based manner''. He welcomed the ongoing efforts at political, economic and social reforms in Myanmar including attempts to engage Aung San Suu Kyi.

Nguồn: The Times of India,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-extends-credit-line-of-500m-to-Myanmar/articleshow/10359800.cms

Quan chức Bộ Nội vụ Ấn Độ: Pakistan đang cố gắng tắm máu Ấn Độ

'Pakistan is trying to bleed India'

Hindustan Times
New Delhi, October 12, 2011

India's engines of economic growth run the risk of terrorist attacks sponsored by Pakistan, which is trying to bleed India through a thousand cuts, a top home ministry official said on Tuesday. "This (jihadi) brand of terrorism is primarily sponsored by our neighbouring country in the west, whose policy is to conduct war against India by all other means and bleed us through a thousand cuts. This naturally includes targeting of anything...with a view to damage, degrade or destroy the engines of economic growth and critical centres of power and strength of our country," secretary (internal security) in the Union home ministry UK Bansal said.

Bansal said this at a seminar on 'The challenge of terrorism to India's infrastructure and economy', organised by Security Watch India.

"It is legitimate to anticipate that countries and entities hostile to the Indian interest will try to extract maximum advantage by attacking our economic and high-value targets. Critical economic infrastructure is obviously in the firing line," he said.

Bansal added that these activities were being "planned, financed and facilitated" from across the western border.

"A massive security effort is warranted to prevent and deal with security threats to our vital and high-value targets," he said.

Referring to the Naxal menace, Bansal said the central government was actively promoting all kinds of expertise required by the central police forces.

Director General of CRPF K Vijay Kumar said the paramilitary force was recruiting ex-army men and creating an IED school to counter improvised explosive devices in collaboration with the Army.

Nguồn: Hindustan Times,
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Pakistan-is-trying-to-bleed-India/H1-Article1-756231.aspx

Obama thẳng thừng tố cáo quân đội Pakistan có quan hệ với khủng bố

Obama lashes out at Pak military for ties to terrorists

Chidanand Rajghatta

TNN 

Oct 6, 2011


WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama on Thursday lit into Pakistan, virtually accusing the country's all-powerful military of consorting with terrorists, of manufacting threats from India, and creating an environment that threatened the whole region, including the people of Pakistan.

At a short-notice White House press conference, Obama prefaced his stinging critique of Pakistan's regional policy by acknowledging the country's importance and some cooperation it has provided so far. But he did not mince words in speaking about the country's two-faced military who are now regarded in some circles as terrorists in uniform.

''There is no doubt that there's some connections the Pakistani military and intelligence services have with certain individuals that we find troubling," Obama said, endorsing the view of just-retired joint chiefs of staff Mike Mullen. "I think they (Pakistan) have hedged their bets in terms of what Afghanistan would look like and part of hedging their bets is having interactions with some of the unsavory characters who they think might end up regaining power in Afghanistan after coalition forces have left," he added.

Pakistan has variously denied, and sometimes acknowledged and justified, ties with terrorist groups, which they believe further the country's strategic interest in Afghanistan in the event of U.S pull out. Pakistani analysts also believe the military is doing this to prevent India from wielding any influence in Afghanistan, where a broad-based dispensation excluding the Taliban is more inclined towards New Delhi.

But Obama appeared to rubbish the idea, suggesting Pakistan was ill-served by this policy. Pakistan, he said, saw its "security interest threatened by an independent Afghanistan, in part because they think it will ally itself to India and Pakistan still considers India their mortal enemy,'' and "Part of what we want to do is actually get Pakistan to realize that a peaceful approach towards India would be in everybody's interests."

Pakistan itself faced pressing problems such as poverty, illiteracy, a lack of development and weak civil institutions, "and in that environment, you've seen extremism grow, you've seen militancy that threatens the Pakistani government and Pakistani people as well.''

"Trying to get that reorientation is something we continue to work on,'' Obama said, admitting, ''It is not easy.''

Nguồn: The Times of India,
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Obama-lashes-out-at-Pak-military-for-ties-to-terrorists/articleshow/10259773.cms